Hidden Layoffs — Methodology Under Review

What can be said

Formal layoff trackers miss slower changes in hiring, backfilling, vacancy creation and entry-level recruitment. Those mechanisms are worth studying, but a counterfactual job that might otherwise have existed cannot be counted in the same way as a documented redundancy.

What a defensible replacement needs

• Named, dated source series for vacancies, hires and occupational composition.
• A pre-declared baseline and comparison period.
• Controls for interest rates, demand, sector mix and ordinary business cycles.
• Clear separation between observed hiring changes and causal attribution to AI.
• Uncertainty ranges instead of a single invented displacement total.

The conceptual essay can return when those inputs are attached at record level. Until then, the earlier percentages, quotes and extrapolated “560,000 jobs” figure are quarantined rather than repeated.