🏛️ California Policy Lab · Official Government Data · Updated Monthly

California AI Unemployment Tracker

California is the first US state to officially monitor AI-driven job displacement. It uses Anthropic's own AI exposure measure (Claude task-coverage share) to classify occupations. Here's what the data actually shows — and what California won't say about it.

+22.9%
Rise in AI exposure of the average UI claimant since pre-ChatGPT (2022→2026)
0.899
AI coverage score for Management — the most exposed industry filing UI claims in 2026
~40%
Share of UI claims from top-25%-AI-exposed jobs — vs. the expected 25%
113
Monthly data points from Jan 2017 to May 2026
The Official Hedge
California's own tracker includes the caveat that it "shouldn't be used as a definitive guide" and "can't actually determine whether particular jobs were eliminated due to AI." The state is measuring the signal it refuses to name. CopeCheck calls this measurement cope: publish the data, disclaim the conclusion. Source →

AI Exposure Score of UI Claimants — 2017 to 2026

Each month, California measures the average AI-exposure score of all people filing for unemployment insurance. A rising score means people losing jobs are increasingly concentrated in AI-exposed occupations. Using Anthropic's Claude task-coverage measure.

ChatGPT launched November 2022. Avg score before: 0.252. Avg score 2026: 0.309. That's a +22.9% structural shift.

Source: California Policy Lab CAIT, June 2026. Anthropic measure = Claude task-coverage share per occupation.

Top-25% AI-Exposed Jobs: Share of UI Claims

If AI had no effect on unemployment, the most AI-exposed 25% of occupations would account for ~25% of UI claims. They account for 38–43%. They have been overrepresented since before ChatGPT — but the overrepresentation persists and has not reversed.

By Industry — AI Exposure Score (2026)

Average AI-exposure score of UI claimants by industry, 2026 to date.

By Age Group — AI Exposure Score (2025–26)

36–45 age group has highest AI exposure among UI claimants. 16–24 year olds are least exposed.

CopeCheck Analysis — What the Data Shows

Management (AI score 0.90), Finance & Insurance (0.86), and Professional Services (0.78) are the three most AI-exposed industries currently filing for unemployment in California. These are not low-skill jobs being automated. These are the professions that consultants, economists, and government bodies said were "augmented not replaced."

The average AI-exposure score of UI claimants rose from 0.252 (pre-ChatGPT 2022) to 0.309 in 2026 — a structural shift that tracks the deployment of frontier models, not economic cycles. California is not willing to say this in its press releases. The data says it anyway.

→ Hidden Layoffs: the displacement that never reaches the headlines
→ US Layoffs Tracker

Data: California AI Unemployment Tracker (CAIT), California Policy Lab & Employment Development Department. Updated monthly. Download: CAIT XLSX →

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